Click any figure to drill down to the accounts and months behind it.
Headline
✦ Draft commentary · Xero actuals vs FY27 budgetIn Sep-26, revenue was £741.9k, £48.9k (6.2%) below budget (incl. Partner cross-sales £80.9k below, excl. Partner cross-sales and Orbit Logistics £13.9k below). Gross margin was 86.6% of revenue, 1.5 pts below budget, and EBITDA was −£128.9k, £62.3k worse than budget. Year to date, revenue is £3,628.1k, 3.5% below budget, and EBITDA is −£559.7k, £70.7k worse than budget.
Every entity's payroll, revenue and supplier costs are in for Sep-26.
Results vs budget
Group · £k · positive variance is favourable on every line · prior year is the same months last year, mapped as today · click any figure
| Month (Sep-26) | Year to date (May-26 to Sep-26) | Prior year to date | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £k | Actual | Budget | Var £k | Var % | Actual | Budget | Var £k | Var % | Actual | vs prior % |
| Revenue incl. Partner cross-sales | 741.9 | 822.8 | −80.9 | −9.8% | 3,628.1 | 3,858.4 | −230.3 | −6.0% | 3,187.3 | +13.8% |
| Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales | 741.9 | 790.8 | −48.9 | −6.2% | 3,628.1 | 3,758.4 | −130.3 | −3.5% | 3,187.3 | +13.8% |
| Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales and Orbit Logistics | 741.9 | 755.8 | −13.9 | −1.8% | 3,628.1 | 3,653.4 | −25.3 | −0.7% | 3,187.3 | +13.8% |
| Orbit Logistics | 0.0 | 35.0 | −35.0 | −100.0% | 0.0 | 105.0 | −105.0 | −100.0% | 0.0 | – |
| Cost of sales | −99.6 | −94.6 | −5.1 | −5.4% | −507.8 | −461.7 | −46.2 | −10.0% | −444.7 | −14.2% |
| Gross margin | 642.2 | 696.2 | −54.0 | −7.8% | 3,120.3 | 3,296.7 | −176.4 | −5.4% | 2,742.6 | +13.8% |
| Opex | −771.1 | −762.8 | −8.3 | −1.1% | −3,679.9 | −3,785.7 | +105.7 | +2.8% | −3,536.7 | −4.0% |
| EBITDA | −128.9 | −66.6 | −62.3 | −93.6% | −559.7 | −489.0 | −70.7 | −14.5% | −794.1 | +29.5% |
Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales £741.9k in Sep-26, −£48.9k (−6.2%) against budget. Year to date £3,628.1k, −£130.3k (−3.5%). Drivers in the month: Orbit Logistics −£35.0k and Revenue −£13.9k.
Gross margin £642.2k in Sep-26, −£54.0k (−7.8%) against budget. Year to date £3,120.3k, −£176.4k (−5.4%). Drivers in the month: Orbit Logistics −£35.0k, Revenue −£13.9k and Direct costs −£5.1k.
Opex −£771.1k in Sep-26, −£8.3k (−1.1%) against budget. Year to date −£3,679.9k, +£105.7k (+2.8%). Drivers in the month: Office & general −£29.0k, Sales staff +£18.5k and Technology staff +£7.9k.
EBITDA −£128.9k in Sep-26, −£62.3k (−93.6%) against budget. Year to date −£559.7k, −£70.7k (−14.5%). Drivers in the month: Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales −£48.9k, Opex −£8.3k and Cost of sales −£5.1k.
Gross margin is revenue less cost of sales. Opex is staff costs plus other operating costs. EBITDA is gross margin less opex, before exceptionals, interest, depreciation and excluded items. Partner cross-sales: outside revenue, gross margin and EBITDA on the grid basis. They aren't tagged in Xero, so their actuals show as zero. Orbit Logistics is shown on its own line and sits inside revenue.
Full-year outlook
FY27 · £k · best guess: actuals to Sep-26, forecast after · as at the Sep-26 close
| £k | Budget | Best guess | Var £k | Var % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue incl. Partner cross-sales | 10,158.9 | 9,528.1 | −630.8 | −6.2% |
| Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales | 9,666.9 | 9,435.3 | −231.6 | −2.4% |
| Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales and Orbit Logistics | 9,316.9 | 9,315.3 | −1.6 | 0.0% |
| Orbit Logistics | 350.0 | 120.0 | −230.0 | −65.7% |
| Gross margin | 8,512.3 | 8,175.2 | −337.2 | −4.0% |
| EBITDA | −779.5 | −1,131.7 | −352.3 | −45.2% |
| Year-end cash (indicative) | 2,389.7 | 2,108.1 | −281.6 | −11.8% |
Upside not in the best guess, and a risk to FP&A's forecast: the Partner cross-sales ramp FP&A assume for Oct-26 to Nov-26, +£21.2k of revenue and +£15.9k of EBITDA once Partner cross-sales are included. The best guess follows the partner's dated go-lives, so it counts only if they come in.
Year-end cash is indicative: cash at the Sep-26 month end plus EBITDA for the open months on each basis. It ignores working capital, capex and funding. Cash and funding has the cash forecast to Apr-27, which adds working capital and capex.
Budget to best guess
FY27 EBITDA, May-26 to Apr-27 · click a bar
What it takes to hit budget · 7 months left
Group · £k · what is still needed after Sep-26 to reach the full-year budget, a month, against the budget, the last 3 months and the latest forecast · click a figure for its accounts
| £k | FY budget | Actual to date | Still needed | Needed a month | Budget a month | Run rate a month | Latest forecast a month | FY latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales | 9,666.9 | 3,628.1 | 6,038.8 | 862.7 | 844.1 | 734.6 | 829.6 | 9,435.3 |
| Gross margin | 8,512.3 | 3,120.3 | 5,392.1 | 770.3 | 745.1 | 633.0 | 722.1 | 8,175.2 |
| EBITDA | −779.5 | −559.7 | −219.8 | −31.4 | −41.5 | −112.3 | −81.7 | −1,131.7 |
Still needed is the full-year budget less the actual to date; needed a month spreads it evenly over the months left. A run rate or forecast in green reaches it, in red falls short. A negative figure needed means the budget is already beaten or, for EBITDA, a loss it can still afford. The latest forecast is the best guess after the closed months, as on Forecast & scenarios.
The next 12 months
Group · £k · Oct-26 to Sep-27 on the best guess: 7 months of FY27, then 5 of the next year · click a total for the lines
| £k | Oct-26 to Dec-26 | Jan-27 to Mar-27 | Apr-27 to Jun-27 | Jul-27 to Sep-27 | Next 12 months | Last 12 months | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,395.6 | 2,541.8 | 2,644.2 | 2,750.0 | 10,331.6 | 8,333.5 | +1,998.2 |
| Gross margin | 2,084.1 | 2,213.4 | 2,302.5 | 2,394.7 | 8,994.6 | 7,155.1 | +1,839.5 |
| EBITDA | −316.7 | −206.3 | −117.1 | −25.0 | −665.0 | −1,558.8 | +893.7 |
The months of FY27 are the best guess, as in the outlook. After that the drivers carry on: the short-term forecast goes on from its last month, and approved plans and the KPI forecast that run to the year end hold their last month. Last 12 months are the Xero actuals for Oct-25 to Sep-26. Open Forecast & scenarios for each month.
What moved the forecast
FY27 full year · best guess now against the forecast taken after the Aug-26 close (saved with an FP&A import, 8 Sept 2026) · £k · click a change for its lines
| Line | Then | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,443.2 | 9,435.3 | −7.8 |
| EBITDA | −1,122.2 | −1,131.7 | −9.5 |
| Revenue | 9,323.2 | 9,315.3 | −7.8 |
| Technology staff | −4,390.0 | −4,390.7 | −0.7 |
| Sales staff | −2,683.7 | −2,684.2 | −0.4 |
| Direct costs | −1,244.5 | −1,244.7 | −0.2 |
| Office & general | −765.0 | −765.2 | −0.1 |
Under the two headline rows, the 5 lines inside EBITDA that moved most. Positive is better: more revenue or lower costs. Closed months count as actuals in both, so a month that closed since then moves by its actual against what was forecast. The earlier forecast didn't cover Oct-26 to Apr-27, so those months count as unchanged.
Forecast track record
How close the forecast made after each month-end came to the actuals · £k
For Sep-26, the forecast taken after the Aug-26 close said EBITDA −£119.5k; actual −£128.9k (7.4% off).
| Month | Forecast taken | Revenue | Total costs | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | After the Aug-26 close, 8 Sept 2026 | −7.8 1.1% | −1.7 0.2% | −9.5 7.4% |
| Aug-26 | After the Jul-26 close, 4 Aug 2026 | −16.8 2.3% | −24.0 2.9% | −40.8 45.4% |
| Jul-26 | After the Jun-26 close, 2 Jul 2026 | −2.6 0.4% | +9.5 1.1% | +7.0 5.9% |
| Jun-26 | After the May-26 close, 3 Jun 2026 | +13.4 1.9% | +20.9 2.6% | +34.3 38.4% |
| May-26 | After the Apr-26 close, 4 May 2026 | +17.1 2.4% | −15.3 1.8% | +1.8 1.4% |
| Apr-26 | After the Mar-26 close, 2 Apr 2026 | +4.8 0.7% | −17.6 2.1% | −12.7 10.1% |
Actual less forecast in £k, with how far off as a share of the actual. Positive is better than forecast: more revenue, lower costs. Each month is scored against the latest forecast taken after the previous month's close; click a month for every line. Over these 6 months the forecast was on average 1.4% off on revenue and 18.1% off on EBITDA.
Largest variances
Group · £k · P&L lines with the biggest variance against budget, year to date to Sep-26 · positive is favourable
| £k | Sep var | YTD actual | YTD budget | YTD var | Var % | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orbit Logistics | −35.0 | 0.0 | 105.0 | −105.0 | −100.0% | – |
| Sales staff | +18.5 | −1,104.0 | −1,175.6 | +71.6 | +6.1% | – |
| Technology staff | +7.9 | −1,781.7 | −1,835.3 | +53.6 | +2.9% | – |
| Direct costs | −5.1 | −507.8 | −461.7 | −46.2 | −10.0% | Aug-26: Card processing fees went up with the new price list. |
| Revenue | −13.9 | 3,628.1 | 3,653.4 | −25.3 | −0.7% | – |
Balance sheet
Group (simple sum) · £k · month-end trial balances · assets positive, liabilities negative
| £k | Sep-26 | Change on Aug | Change on opening (Apr-26) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and bank | 2,680.2 | −142.8 | −629.1 |
| Receivables and advances | 677.6 | +11.0 | +53.0 |
| Other current assets | 102.0 | +60.0 | +60.0 |
| Fixed and intangible assets | 66.5 | −2.3 | −11.4 |
| Investments | 500.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Intercompany balances | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Current liabilities | −442.2 | −8.8 | −11.6 |
| Funding and long-term liabilities | −430.0 | +10.0 | +50.0 |
| Net assets | 3,155.4 | −73.0 | −489.0 |
Intercompany is left in so any mismatch shows, and investments in subsidiaries aren't eliminated. A dash means that month's trial balance isn't synced.
By department
Group · £k · lines inside EBITDA by the department they're mapped to · year to date to Sep-26 and the full year · positive variance is favourable · click any figure
| Department | YTD actual | YTD budget | YTD var | FY best guess | FY budget | FY var |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | −1,429.1 | −1,509.0 | +79.9 | −3,554.6 | −3,685.9 | +131.3 |
| Technology | −2,030.7 | −2,068.1 | +37.4 | −4,987.1 | −5,095.9 | +108.7 |
| No department | 2,900.1 | 3,088.1 | −188.0 | 7,410.0 | 8,002.3 | −592.3 |
| All departments (EBITDA) | −559.7 | −489.0 | −70.7 | −1,131.7 | −779.5 | −352.3 |
FY best guess is the closed months' actuals and the best guess after them, as on Forecast & scenarios. Lines with no department are in their own row. Open Budget vs actual for any entity.
By quarter
Group · £k · latest forecast: actuals for closed months and the best guess after them, as on Forecast & scenarios · variance is latest less budget, positive is favourable · as at the Sep-26 close · click a figure in a closed quarter to see its accounts
| Q1 · May-26 to Jul-26 Actual | Q2 · Aug-26 to Oct-26 2 of 3 months actual | Q3 · Nov-26 to Jan-27 Forecast | Q4 · Feb-27 to Apr-27 Forecast | Full year Latest forecast | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £k | Latest | Budget | Var | Latest | Budget | Var | Latest | Budget | Var | Latest | Budget | Var | Latest | Budget | Var |
| Revenue incl. Partner cross-sales | 2,148.3 | 2,232.0 | −83.6 | 2,249.5 | 2,482.5 | −233.0 | 2,503.2 | 2,649.3 | −146.1 | 2,627.2 | 2,795.2 | −168.0 | 9,528.1 | 10,158.9 | −630.8 |
| Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales | 2,148.3 | 2,190.0 | −41.6 | 2,243.9 | 2,386.5 | −142.6 | 2,467.6 | 2,499.3 | −31.7 | 2,575.6 | 2,591.2 | −15.6 | 9,435.3 | 9,666.9 | −231.6 |
| Revenue excl. Partner cross-sales and Orbit Logistics | 2,148.3 | 2,155.0 | −6.6 | 2,243.9 | 2,281.5 | −37.6 | 2,407.6 | 2,394.3 | +13.3 | 2,515.6 | 2,486.2 | +29.4 | 9,315.3 | 9,316.9 | −1.6 |
| Orbit Logistics | 0.0 | 35.0 | −35.0 | 0.0 | 105.0 | −105.0 | 60.0 | 105.0 | −45.0 | 60.0 | 105.0 | −45.0 | 120.0 | 350.0 | −230.0 |
| Cost of sales | −306.2 | −273.6 | −32.6 | −302.3 | −283.8 | −18.5 | −318.9 | −293.6 | −25.3 | −332.8 | −303.6 | −29.2 | −1,260.2 | −1,154.6 | −105.6 |
| Gross margin | 1,842.1 | 1,916.4 | −74.2 | 1,941.6 | 2,102.7 | −161.1 | 2,148.7 | 2,205.7 | −57.0 | 2,242.8 | 2,287.6 | −44.8 | 8,175.2 | 8,512.3 | −337.2 |
| Opex | −2,183.0 | −2,260.3 | +77.3 | −2,284.6 | −2,288.5 | +3.9 | −2,419.6 | −2,337.3 | −82.3 | −2,419.6 | −2,405.6 | −14.0 | −9,306.9 | −9,291.8 | −15.1 |
| EBITDA | −340.9 | −344.0 | +3.1 | −343.0 | −185.7 | −157.2 | −271.0 | −131.7 | −139.3 | −176.9 | −118.1 | −58.8 | −1,131.7 | −779.5 | −352.3 |
Quarters follow the fiscal year from May-26. Shaded figures include forecast months; the full year opens the best guess by line. Open By quarter on Budget vs actual for any entity.
Revenue by month
Group · Xero actuals May-26 to Sep-26, best-guess forecast Oct-26 to Apr-27 · click a bar or point
Revenue by entity
£k · Sep-26 and year to date · run-rate is the month × 12
| Entity | Aug | Sep | Change | YTD | Share | Run-rate | YTD budget | YTD var |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWES | 164.9 | 157.7 | −4.4% | 792.0 | 22% | 1,892.9 | 760.9 | +31.1 |
| NWHL | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NWUK | 573.0 | 584.1 | +1.9% | 2,836.1 | 78% | 7,009.3 | 2,997.5 | −161.3 |
| Group | 737.9 | 741.9 | +0.5% | 3,628.1 | 100% | 8,902.2 | 3,758.4 | −130.3 |
Change is Sep-26 against Aug-26. Run-rate is Sep-26 × 12: a run-rate, not a forecast. YTD budget is each entity's own revenue budget.
Customers
Group · £k · invoiced in Jul-26 to Sep-26 against Apr-26 to Jun-26, net of VAT and credit notes
| What moved revenue | Customers | £k |
|---|---|---|
| Apr-26 to Jun-26 | 216.5 | |
| New customers | 1 | +4.8 |
| Higher from existing customers | 1 | +13.5 |
| Lower from existing customers | 1 | −12.8 |
| No longer invoiced | 0 | 0.0 |
| Jul-26 to Sep-26 | 222.0 |
| Largest customers | £k | Share |
|---|---|---|
| NWUK · Orbit Logistics plc | 109.5 | 49.3% |
| NWUK · Harbour Retail Group | 63.0 | 28.4% |
| NWES · Distribuciones Sol SA | 38.3 | 17.2% |
| NWUK · Summit Care Homes | 6.4 | 2.9% |
| NWUK · Brightline Hotels Ltd | 4.8 | 2.2% |
Net revenue retention 100.3%: what the customers invoiced in Apr-26 to Jun-26 brought in during Jul-26 to Sep-26, new customers left out. Sales invoices from Xero, not the P&L: revenue posted by journal isn't an invoice. Open Customer revenue for each customer and month.
Cash and funding
Group · month-end balances from Xero trial balances · £k
| £k | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash at month end | 3,309.3 | 3,214.0 | 3,107.5 | 2,974.1 | 2,823.0 | 2,680.2 |
| Change in the month | −110.3 | −95.2 | −106.5 | −133.4 | −151.1 | −142.8 |
Next 13 weeks
Group · indicative, from the Sep-26 month end · £k
| Opening cash | Lowest point | Cash at week 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 2,680.2 | 2,322.5 (week 4, from 22 Oct) | 2,352.6 |
Receipts, supplier payments, payroll and PAYE on the last 3 closed months' run-rate. It leaves out VAT, capex and funding. Open Balance sheet & cash for each week and how it is built.
To the year end
Group · indicative, on the best guess from the Sep-26 month end · £k
| Opening cash | Lowest month end | Cash at Apr-27 |
|---|---|---|
| 2,680.2 | 1,979.0 (Apr-27) | 1,979.0 |
Each open month's best-guess result, depreciation added back, receivables and payables at the current debtor and creditor days, and capex at the recent pace. It leaves out funding, intercompany, VAT timing and FX. Open Balance sheet & cash for each month.
Owed by customers
Group · £k · approved sales invoices not yet paid, less unapplied credit notes, as at 25 Oct 2026
| Days past the due date | £k | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 65.3 | 48.4% |
| 1 to 30 days | 44.0 | 32.6% |
| 31 to 60 days | 12.8 | 9.5% |
| 61 to 90 days | 6.4 | 4.7% |
| Over 90 days | 6.4 | 4.7% |
| Total | 134.9 |
| Most overdue | Overdue £k | Oldest overdue invoice |
|---|---|---|
| NWUK · Orbit Logistics plc | 44.0 | INV-1032, 18 days |
| NWUK · Summit Care Homes | 12.8 | INV-0961, 105 days |
| NWES · Distribuciones Sol SA | 12.8 | ES-0311, 40 days |
69.6 of 134.9 is overdue (51.6%), across 4 customers.
- NWES: open invoices €k 15.0, control account €k 15.0, difference 0.0.
- NWUK: open invoices £k 122.1, control account £k 120.1, difference −2.0.
Each entity's open invoices are set against its receivables control account in its own currency; a difference is usually a payment or journal not matched to an invoice. Amounts between group entities are included, as in each entity's ledger. Open Customer revenue for every customer and invoice.
Usage
Group, whole business · from the KPIs · Sep-26 and year to date, against the KPI budget · click a figure for its definition
| Aug | Sep | Change | Sep budget | YTD | YTD budget | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transacting users | 161,026 | 163,245 | +1.4% | 173,827 | 158,976 | 164,673 |
| Users logging in | 259,746 | 263,336 | +1.4% | 270,673 | 256,938 | 260,747 |
| Withdrawals | 422,147 | 420,085 | −0.5% | 446,903 | 2,069,598 | 2,116,660 |
| Value withdrawn | £25,285.1k | £25,195.9k | −0.4% | £25,584.8k | £124,050.6k | £123,297.8k |
| Fee per withdrawal | £1.61 | £1.62 | +0.3% | £1.62 | £1.62 | £1.62 |
| Revenue per withdrawal (Xero) | £1.61 | £1.62 | +0.3% | £1.62 | £1.60 | £1.62 |
| Conversion: registered to transacting | 43.0% | 43.0% | 0.0 pts | 44.5% | 42.9% | 43.8% |
| Conversion: logging in to transacting | 62.0% | 62.0% | 0.0 pts | 64.2% | 61.9% | 63.2% |
| Adoption: eligible to registered | 38.2% | 38.4% | +0.2 pts | 36.0% | 38.0% | 35.6% |
Transacting users made a withdrawal in the month. Counts add up across entities; the group uses GROUP figures only where no entity has one. Where a funnel figure (eligible, registered, logging in) has no actual yet, FP&A's estimate is used.
Ledger health
View all checks →Open checks on the latest Xero data, as at Sep-26
1 critical and 6 warnings open.
2 more on Health checks.
Not in Foresail yet
The monthly review also shows these. Foresail doesn't hold the data yet.
- Revenue by stream (employee-paid, employer-paid and platform fees)
- Employees live against budget for partner cross-sales clients
- Sales pipeline by stage, and the weighted revenue forecast built on it
- Security score against the shareholders' minimum
Usage now comes from the KPIs. Follow progress on What's new.