Short term: FP&A forecast (demo) is used as imported for Oct-26 to Nov-26. Lines and months it doesn't cover come from the drivers, which carry on from Nov-26 after it. The exception is Partner cross-sales for NWUK: they follow the go-live pipeline in every open month, ahead of the import, and FP&A's Partner cross-sales ramp shows as a risk under the totals. Run-rate adjustments add £38k of recurring costs it leaves out or understates, for 1 account.
EBITDA by month
Group · actual, then best guess · click a bar
Scenarios
Group · full year FY27 · without Partner cross-sales
| Revenue | Gross margin | EBITDA | Year-end cash* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget (FY27 budget) | 9,666.9 | 88.1% | −779.5 | — |
| Best guess | 9,435.3 | 86.6% | −1,131.7 | 2,108.1 |
| Downside | 9,178.9 | 85.5% | −1,516.2 | 1,723.6 |
| Upside | 9,703.9 | 87.2% | −807.6 | 2,432.3 |
£k. *Indicative: cash at Sep-26 plus forecast EBITDA for the open months. It ignores working capital, capex and funding.
Drivers
Defaults come from the actuals. Changes here recalculate every entity straight away.
| Entity | Revenue growth % a month | Direct costs % of revenue | Staff costs change % vs last month | Other costs change % vs 3-month average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWES | Default 1.3% | Default 13.0% | Default 0.0% | Default 0.0% |
| NWHL | Default 0.0% | Default 0.0% | Default 0.0% | Default 0.0% |
| NWUK | Default 1.3% | Default 14.1% | Default 0.0% | Default 0.0% |
Revenue: trend of up to the last 6 months that have revenue, capped at 5% a month either way (not used for a line on KPI drivers). Direct costs: last 3 months of direct costs over revenue. Staff: flat at the last closed month. Other costs and items below EBITDA: trailing 3-month average.
Revenue from KPIs
Choose KPI drivers to forecast a revenue line from users and withdrawals: active users × withdrawals per active user × fee per withdrawal, plus subscription and other revenue, for each segment, plus the rest of Xero revenue the KPIs don't explain. Defaults come from the last 3 months of KPIs (hover a default for its source). A loaded KPI forecast takes the place of the drivers for the months it covers, unless you untick it for the entity; the forecast check on KPIs compares the two. The FP&A short-term forecast still wins for the months it covers; after it, a line on KPI drivers takes the drivers' figures.
| Segment | New clients a month | Eligible per new client employees | Adoption % of new eligible | Organic user growth % a month | Logging in % of registered | Transacting % of logging in | Withdrawals per active user a month | Fee per withdrawal base currency | Subscription a month | Other revenue a month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct | Default 3.33 | Default 1,188 | Default 36.2% | Default 0.6% | Default 68.0% | Default 60.6% | Default 2.51 | Default £1.30 | Default 0 | Default 0 |
| Segment | New clients a month | Eligible per new client employees | Adoption % of new eligible | Organic user growth % a month | Logging in % of registered | Transacting % of logging in | Withdrawals per active user a month | Fee per withdrawal base currency | Subscription a month | Other revenue a month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct | Default 3 | Default 1,484 | Default 39.2% | Default 0.5% | Default 70.0% | Default 62.6% | Default 2.62 | Default £1.75 | Default 0 | Default 61,021 |
| Segment | New clients a month | Eligible per new client employees | Adoption % of new eligible | Organic user growth % a month | Logging in % of registered | Transacting % of logging in | Withdrawals per active user a month | Fee per withdrawal base currency | Subscription a month | Other revenue a month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orbit Logistics | Default 0 | Default 0 | Default 0.0% | Default 0.0% | Default 100.0% | Default 100.0% | Default 0 | Default £0.00 | Default 0 | Default 0 |
New revenue lines
A named client or contract going live. Its revenue only counts in open months, with direct costs at the entity's share.
Pipeline
Clients going live through a partner, by month. Each go-live brings employees who earn revenue per employee per month, from the go-live month plus the slip. Put the Partner cross-sales line on Go-live pipeline to make it that line's forecast: its last 3 months' average plus the go-lives, ahead of the FP&A short-term forecast, with FP&A's ramp shown as a risk under the totals. Otherwise it is a memo line outside revenue and EBITDA unless "Include" is ticked above.
| Client | Status | Go-live | Employees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| left out | ||||
Group forecast by line
£k · shaded months are forecast · click a figure to see where it comes from
| Line | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 | Nov-26 | Dec-26 | Jan-27 | Feb-27 | Mar-27 | Apr-27 | FY27 | Budget | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 713.9 | 710.4 | 724.0 | 737.9 | 741.9 | 764.1 | 786.4 | 805.1 | 816.1 | 827.2 | 838.5 | 849.9 | 9,315.3 | 9,316.9 | −1.6 |
| Revenue: Orbit Logistics | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 120.0 | 350.0 | −230.0 |
| Total revenue | 713.9 | 710.4 | 724.0 | 737.9 | 741.9 | 764.1 | 806.4 | 825.1 | 836.1 | 847.2 | 858.5 | 869.9 | 9,435.3 | 9,666.9 | −231.6 |
| Revenue excl. Orbit Logistics | 713.9 | 710.4 | 724.0 | 737.9 | 741.9 | 764.1 | 786.4 | 805.1 | 816.1 | 827.2 | 838.5 | 849.9 | 9,315.3 | 9,316.9 | −1.6 |
| Cost of sales | |||||||||||||||
| Direct costs | −102.1 | −100.9 | −103.1 | −102.0 | −99.6 | −100.6 | −101.6 | −104.0 | −105.5 | −106.9 | −108.4 | −109.8 | −1,244.7 | −1,154.6 | −90.1 |
| Direct costs: Orbit Logistics | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −2.6 | −2.6 | −2.6 | −2.6 | −2.6 | −15.5 | 0.0 | −15.5 |
| Total cost of sales | −102.1 | −100.9 | −103.1 | −102.0 | −99.6 | −100.6 | −104.2 | −106.6 | −108.0 | −109.5 | −110.9 | −112.4 | −1,260.2 | −1,154.6 | −105.6 |
| Gross margin | 611.8 | 609.5 | 620.8 | 635.9 | 642.2 | 663.5 | 702.1 | 718.5 | 728.1 | 737.7 | 747.5 | 757.5 | 8,175.2 | 8,512.3 | −337.2 |
| Staff costs | |||||||||||||||
| Sales staff | −218.7 | −220.3 | −220.4 | −222.9 | −221.6 | −223.8 | −226.1 | −226.1 | −226.1 | −226.1 | −226.1 | −226.1 | −2,684.2 | −2,867.6 | +183.5 |
| Technology staff | −351.9 | −354.8 | −358.8 | −357.1 | −359.2 | −359.0 | −375.0 | −375.0 | −375.0 | −375.0 | −375.0 | −375.0 | −4,390.7 | −4,515.6 | +124.8 |
| Total staff costs | −570.6 | −575.1 | −579.2 | −580.0 | −580.8 | −582.8 | −601.1 | −601.1 | −601.1 | −601.1 | −601.1 | −601.1 | −7,074.9 | −7,383.2 | +308.3 |
| Other operating costs | |||||||||||||||
| Sales & marketing | −68.1 | −60.0 | −66.6 | −61.2 | −69.1 | −77.3 | −78.0 | −78.0 | −78.0 | −78.0 | −78.0 | −78.0 | −870.4 | −818.3 | −52.1 |
| Technology | −50.3 | −49.7 | −49.2 | −49.3 | −50.4 | −49.6 | −49.6 | −49.6 | −49.6 | −49.6 | −49.6 | −49.6 | −596.4 | −580.3 | −16.1 |
| Office & general | −56.1 | −14.0 | −44.0 | −35.3 | −70.8 | −77.9 | −77.9 | −77.9 | −77.9 | −77.9 | −77.9 | −77.9 | −765.2 | −510.0 | −255.2 |
| Total other operating costs | −174.5 | −123.8 | −159.8 | −145.8 | −190.4 | −204.8 | −205.5 | −205.5 | −205.5 | −205.5 | −205.5 | −205.5 | −2,232.0 | −1,908.6 | −323.4 |
| Run-rate adjustments (in the lines above) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −5.8 | −5.3 | −5.3 | −5.3 | −5.3 | −5.3 | −5.3 | −37.8 | — | — |
| EBITDA | −133.4 | −89.3 | −118.2 | −89.9 | −128.9 | −124.2 | −104.4 | −88.1 | −78.5 | −68.8 | −59.0 | −49.1 | −1,131.7 | −779.5 | −352.3 |
| Below EBITDAC | |||||||||||||||
| Exceptionals | −1.3 | −48.0 | −1.3 | −1.4 | −1.8 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −67.0 | 0.0 | −67.0 |
| Interest & depreciation | −9.0 | −9.0 | −9.0 | −9.0 | −9.0 | −9.1 | −9.2 | −9.2 | −9.2 | −9.2 | −9.2 | −9.2 | −109.2 | −108.0 | −1.2 |
| Total below ebitdac | −10.3 | −57.0 | −10.3 | −10.4 | −10.8 | −11.0 | −11.1 | −11.1 | −11.1 | −11.1 | −11.1 | −11.1 | −176.2 | −108.0 | −68.2 |
| Memo: Partner cross-sales, not in revenue or EBITDA | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue: Partner cross-sales | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 92.8 | 492.0 | −399.2 |
| Direct costs: Partner cross-sales | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | −2.3 | −2.3 | −4.3 | −4.3 | −4.3 | −4.3 | −23.2 | −58.2 | +35.0 |
| Risk: not in the best guess | |||||||||||||||
| Partner cross-sales ramp in FP&A's forecast, not in the best guess | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.2 | — | — |
| Effect on EBITDA (once Partner cross-sales are included) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.9 | — | — |
Saved versions
The primary best guess is what everyone sees when they open this page. Saving always creates a new version, and a new best guess takes over as primary. Locking marks a version as final for reference: its saved figures never change.
| Name | Kind | Saved | From actuals to | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FP&A forecast (demo) FP&A import Short term | Custom | 25 Oct 2026 | Sep-26 | |
| Best guess (demo) Primary | Best guess | 25 Oct 2026 | Sep-26 | |
| Orbit Logistics late (demo) | Scenario | 23 Oct 2026 | Sep-26 | |
| FP&A forecast, previous (demo) FP&A import | Custom | 26 Sept 2026 | Sep-26 |
Department plans
FY27 · managers plan their own lines for the open months and send them here · full year in GBPk, plan against the best guess · click a difference for the lines
| Department | Status | Plan | Best guess | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Waiting for finance · Submitted by manager@example.com · 25 Oct 2026 · “One more account executive from next month, and the spring campaign.” | −2,781.1 | −3,554.6 | 773.5 | |
| Technology | Approved · Submitted by cto@example.com · 22 Oct 2026 · “Two engineers for the data team.” · Approved by finance@example.com · 23 Oct 2026 | −4,987.1 | −4,987.1 | 0.0 |
Approving a plan puts it in the best guess: its figures replace the forecast for the department's cost lines in the open months it fills, across the app (the Excel forecast sheets use the drivers only). It stays in use until finance approves a newer one. Revenue lines in a plan are a sign-off only, as revenue has its own drivers.
What moved the forecast
FY27 full year · best guess now against the forecast taken after the Aug-26 close (saved with an FP&A import, 8 Sept 2026) · £k · click a change for its lines
| Line | Then | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,443.2 | 9,435.3 | −7.8 |
| EBITDA | −1,122.2 | −1,131.7 | −9.5 |
| Revenue | 9,323.2 | 9,315.3 | −7.8 |
| Technology staff | −4,390.0 | −4,390.7 | −0.7 |
| Sales staff | −2,683.7 | −2,684.2 | −0.4 |
| Direct costs | −1,244.5 | −1,244.7 | −0.2 |
| Office & general | −765.0 | −765.2 | −0.1 |
Under the two headline rows, the 5 lines inside EBITDA that moved most. Positive is better: more revenue or lower costs. Closed months count as actuals in both, so a month that closed since then moves by its actual against what was forecast. The earlier forecast didn't cover Oct-26 to Apr-27, so those months count as unchanged.
How sure is the full year
FY27 full year on the best guess · £k · the likely range if each of the 7 open months is off by as much as a typical month in the last 6 months scored · click a miss for the months behind it
EBITDA lands at −£1,131.7k on the best guess, likely between −£1,255.5k and −£1,007.9k. The budget of −£779.5k is above the likely range.
| Low | Best guess | High | Typical miss a month | If the lean carries on | Budget | Budget against the range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,362.4 | 9,435.3 | 9,508.3 | 10.4 | 9,445.0 | 9,666.9 | above the likely range |
| EBITDA | −1,255.5 | −1,131.7 | −1,007.9 | 17.7 | −1,154.9 | −779.5 | above the likely range |
The miss is how far each month's actual came from the forecast taken after the close before it (see Track record). Months further out are usually harder to forecast than the next one, and misses can cancel out, so the range is a guide, not a bound. "If the lean carries on" adds the average miss, with its sign, to each open month.
Next 12 months
Oct-26 to Sep-27 on the best guess · £k · 7 months of FY27, then 5 of the next year (shaded) · click a total for the lines
| Oct-26 | Nov-26 | Dec-26 | Jan-27 | Feb-27 | Mar-27 | Apr-27 | May-27 | Jun-27 | Jul-27 | Aug-27 | Sep-27 | Next 12 months | Last 12 months | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 764.1 | 806.4 | 825.1 | 836.1 | 847.2 | 858.5 | 869.9 | 881.4 | 893.0 | 904.7 | 916.6 | 928.7 | 10,331.6 | 8,333.5 | +1,998.2 |
| Gross margin | 663.5 | 702.1 | 718.5 | 728.1 | 737.7 | 747.5 | 757.5 | 767.5 | 777.6 | 787.8 | 798.2 | 808.7 | 8,994.6 | 7,155.1 | +1,839.5 |
| EBITDA | −124.2 | −104.4 | −88.1 | −78.5 | −68.8 | −59.0 | −49.1 | −39.1 | −28.9 | −18.7 | −8.4 | 2.1 | −665.0 | −1,558.8 | +893.7 |
The months of FY27 are the best guess as on the rest of the page. After that the drivers carry on: revenue on its growth or KPI drivers, direct costs at their share of revenue, staff and other costs as the drivers set them. The FP&A forecasts and approved department plans cover FY27 only: the short-term forecast carries on from its last month as the drivers move it, and approved plans that run to the year end and the KPI forecast hold their last month. Last 12 months are the Xero actuals for Oct-25 to Sep-26.
If exchange rates move
FY27 full year on the best guess · £k · the open months of NWES (EUR) with the euro weaker or stronger against the pound · click a change for each entity
| The euro | 10% weaker | 5% weaker | As forecast | 5% stronger | 10% stronger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,310.5 | 9,372.9 | 9,435.3 | 9,497.8 | 9,560.2 |
| Gross margin | 8,066.1 | 8,120.6 | 8,175.2 | 8,229.7 | 8,284.2 |
| EBITDA | −1,199.5 | −1,165.6 | −1,131.7 | −1,097.8 | −1,063.9 |
| Change in revenue | −124.9 | −62.4 | +62.4 | +124.9 | |
| Change in gross margin | −109.0 | −54.5 | +54.5 | +109.0 | |
| Change in EBITDA | −67.8 | −33.9 | +33.9 | +67.8 | |
| EBITDA against budget | −420.1 | −386.2 | −352.3 | −318.4 | −284.5 |
The best guess holds these entities' open months in GBP, as forecast. Here each is moved by the same percentage: revenue and costs both, as both are in that currency. Closed months are actuals at the rates they were translated at, so they stay as they are, and so does the budget.
Track record
How close the forecast made after each month-end came to the actuals · £k
For Sep-26, the forecast taken after the Aug-26 close said EBITDA −£119.5k; actual −£128.9k (7.4% off).
| Month | Forecast taken | Revenue | Total costs | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | After the Aug-26 close, 8 Sept 2026 | −7.8 1.1% | −1.7 0.2% | −9.5 7.4% |
| Aug-26 | After the Jul-26 close, 4 Aug 2026 | −16.8 2.3% | −24.0 2.9% | −40.8 45.4% |
| Jul-26 | After the Jun-26 close, 2 Jul 2026 | −2.6 0.4% | +9.5 1.1% | +7.0 5.9% |
| Jun-26 | After the May-26 close, 3 Jun 2026 | +13.4 1.9% | +20.9 2.6% | +34.3 38.4% |
| May-26 | After the Apr-26 close, 4 May 2026 | +17.1 2.4% | −15.3 1.8% | +1.8 1.4% |
| Apr-26 | After the Mar-26 close, 2 Apr 2026 | +4.8 0.7% | −17.6 2.1% | −12.7 10.1% |
Actual less forecast in £k, with how far off as a share of the actual. Positive is better than forecast: more revenue, lower costs. Each month is scored against the latest forecast taken after the previous month's close; click a month for every line. Over these 6 months the forecast was on average 1.4% off on revenue and 18.1% off on EBITDA.
Import FP&A forecast
An Excel or CSV file with one row per line and one column per month. Add an Entity column for entity lines; without one, lines are group totals. Amounts in £, income positive and costs negative. Used for the short term, its months replace the drivers, and the drivers carry on from its last month.