Forecast & scenarios

Best guess Scenario studio Headcount

FY27Actuals May-26 to Sep-26Best-guess forecast Oct-26 to Apr-27Short-term: FP&A forecast Oct-26 to Nov-26, then driversDrivers: Best guess (demo)Approved plan: TechnologyGrid basis: Partner cross-sales are a memo lineGBPXeroInclude Partner cross-sales

EBITDA by month

Group · Best guess · actuals to Sep-26, then the scenario against the best guess and the budget

Actual (Xero)ScenarioBest guessBudget

FY27 full year

	Scenario	Best guess	FY27 budget	vs budget
Revenue	9,435.3	9,435.3	9,666.9	−231.6
Gross margin	8,175.2	8,175.2	8,512.3	−337.2
EBITDA	−1,131.7	−1,131.7	−779.5	−352.3
Year-end cash*	2,108.1	2,108.1	—	—

£k. Gross margin 86.6% in the scenario, 86.6% in the best guess. *Indicative: cash at Sep-26 plus forecast EBITDA for the open months (and a one-off below EBITDA); it ignores working capital, capex and funding. Partner cross-sales are memo lines outside these totals; tick Include Partner cross-sales above to bring them in.

Adjustments

A scenario is a set of changes on top of the best guess. Move a slider and every figure recalculates straight away.

Showing: Best guess

Revenue

Revenue growth change NWUK0.0 pts a month → 1.3%

Trailing Oct-25 to Sep-26: 1.3% a month · budget implies 1.5% · best guess 1.3%

Active-user growth change NWES0.0 pts a month

Best guess: 0.6% a month (from the last 3 months of KPIs)

Fee change NWES0.0%

Fee per withdrawal in the best guess: £1.30

Partner cross-sales: Signed pipeline

Partner cross-sales go-live slip0 months later

3 go-lives not live yet, 4,100 employees, Oct-26 to Jan-27 · 1 at risk, left out · Partner cross-sales for NWUK follow it

Partner cross-sales revenue per employee£4.00 a month

Best guess £4.00 per live employee a month

Orbit Logistics

Best guess: £20.0k a month from Nov-26 · budget: £35.0k a month from Jul-26. Its direct costs follow at the line's own share of revenue.

Costs

Direct costs change0.0 pts → 13.1% of revenue

Last 3 months: 13.8% of revenue · budget 11.7% · best guess 13.1%

Staff costs change0.0%

Sep-26: −£580.8k · best guess −£598.5k a month · budget −£624.6k a month

Staff costs from the headcount planThe open months of Sales staff, Technology staff take the plan's cost in place of the best guess (approved department plans on those lines included), moved by the staff costs change; the hiring delay doesn't apply to them. Only admin and finance see this, and it isn't saved with the scenario.

Hiring delayNone

Staff costs rise by £20.3k a month by Apr-27 in the best guess (approved plans: Technology)

Other costs against run-rate0.0%

Run-rate (last 3 months) −£165.3k a month · best guess −£205.4k (24.2% on it) · budget −£162.0k. Approved plans move by the same change.

One-off

A cost or income in one month, such as a fundraise cost: costs are negative. On Exceptionals it sits below EBITDA and moves cash only.

What changed

Best guess against the best guess, line by line, full year FY27 · £k

Nothing changed yet: pick a preset or move a slider.

Compare scenarios

Pick up to 3. Each is worked out on today's actuals and best guess, so saved scenarios show what their changes mean now.

Best guessDownsideUpsideOrbit Logistics late (demo)This scenario (Best guess)

FY27	Best guess	Downside	Upside	FY27 budget
Revenue	9,435.3	9,178.9	9,703.9	9,666.9
Gross margin	8,175.2	7,848.5	8,464.6	8,512.3
EBITDA	−1,131.7	−1,516.2	−807.6	−779.5
Year-end cash*	2,108.1	1,723.6	2,432.3	—
Gross margin %	86.6%	85.5%	87.2%	88.1%

Save and export

Saving keeps these changes as a scenario version for the workspace, with its figures, so Compare versions can set it against any other. Saving as the workspace's Downside or Upside changes what those mean on every page.

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